Long Range Media Hype ( Your Thoughts)

[HWCWX]

Hello Folks !!!

I am looking for opinions here, Already the media is all over the very small potential for a possible storm for late in the upcomming weekend or very early next week in the Late Sunday to Early Monday time frame. I know there is a race with provate Met's, Media and NWS to always want to be first to forecast the storm but many times beyond 5 days out the storm or event VERY SELDOM verfies. As a person like operates a snow plowing to these forecast affect you or your company to wishcast serve any purpose at all ?? Thanks for your imput.

Tony M.
HWC Operations
www.harrisonweather.com

[jt5019]

Any forecast over 3 days away i take with a grain of salt.There has been too many times where a dusting to and inch was predicted and i end up plowing 3 to 4.Living in CT we also get nor easters predicted a lot that never pan out or end up turning to rain :rolleyes:...

With that said it is still nice to look ahead at the long range forecasts and see what the possibilites are so we arent cought off guard if it should pan out.I like to check over everything on my trucks before a storm(fluids bolts spreader etc)If i didnt know anything could be coming i woulnd more than likley end up rushing around last minute which is never fun.

[snowplowjay]

I look at it this way..........

As Snow Removal Professionals we live a life thats far different than many "normal everyday Joe's" could even begin to understand and/or respect... Unlike professional sports players or your daily office workers we have it very differently. For most of us our profession is one that lasts between 4 and 5 months a year. These few short months however are filled with extreme importance in order to keep the world in which we live SAFE and PASSABLE for the general public. Especially during this hustle and bustle filled Christmas season it is extremely important to be on top of your game when your in the Snow Business...............

With that being said......

As someone who takes great interest in Meteorology and weather and who nearly went to get a degree in this field I feel that although it is rare that a forecast range longer than say 3 days out can pan out exactly as forecasted. It is important in our industry to take these long range "EXTREME STORM" forecasts with more than a grain of table salt......... A few miles of tracking difference can mean the difference between having flurries or needing to call in loaders and tri-axles to haul away huge piles. In other words I feel that by at least hinting within long range forecasts as to the possibilities to such events is extremely important to the people within our industry in order to allow some time for figuring on what exactly to expect as the forecast narrows to the point where some sort of scenario ultimately pans out.....................

Do we as plowers run out and flood the grocery stores when we hear this for that last loaf of bread and gallon of milk.................NO...

But do we turn our ears up and listen a lot closer when hints of some sort of medium range storm comes into the forecast.................DEFINITELY...


Just my rambling.........Hope it makes some sense :D


Jay

[wyldman]

I agree with Jay.While I won't bet the farm on any forecast,we are always getting geared up just in case.When they forcast a big storm,we usually end up getting something,so we are ready for it.

[JD PLOWER]

Ditto on Wyldman and Jay's post. I think you have to do your due diligence when it comes to preparing, to do otherwise is is to play with fire. No harm in making phone calls to see if your loaders and Dumps are a good to go. The sooner you call them the better. In a big storm that heavy iron gets popular REALLY FAST.

[BRL]

I guess I kind of answered this in the other thread, before seeing this thread. But I agree with the comments already. A potential big storm means a whole different preparation mentally, physically, supplies & equipment wise. For many of us this will be the first event of the year to work. If its a biggie, its nice to know that potential exists well in advance; to make sure the spare truck is really ready, loaders are ready, buy extra salt, skip the night out partying Friday night maybe to be better prepared physically, etc. There are always bugs to work out with the first storm, so a 2"-3" storm is a perfect warm up for the season. But to start off with a big Nor Easter compounds any of those bugs, so it is prudent for us to be concerned about this & monitor it as it unfolds. That said, I can't remember a HWO this far in advance of a potential event, so this one is certainly getting interesting & bears watching.

[HWCWX]

Thanks everyone for the comments so far. I forecast for many local DPW's in Metro NJ and was wondering what they may or may not think of long range storm potential. We hold a winter weather meeting each year and often get very mixed opinionsat the meetings.

Again thanks and happy holidays !!

Tony M.
HWC

[digger242j]

I don't have any objection to the media pointing out the *possibility* of a major event that's still 96 or 120 hours out. On the contrary, as the others have said, I'd rather know the chance is there and be mentally prepared for it to verify.

What I do is to look at as many sources as possible. I try to see if the *forecasts* are showing a trend. (If they go from 1-2" for the day after tomorrow, to 3-6" for tomorrow, then it's a pretty good bet that by the time it's "today", we'll get 8".) I also try to mentally "average out" all the different forecasts.

What drives me nuts is the fact that even 12-24 hours out there's such a poor degree of accuracy.

Take this past weekend as an example. Here in Pittsburgh the forecasts Saturday were essentially for 1-2", Sunday through Monday evening. Early Sundya Morning TWC started calling for 1-3" Sunday night, and another 1-3" Monday, and another 1" Monday night. The local TV guys and NWS all stayed around an inch or two. It was all supposed to be over around midnight though. Right there we have a management headache, because 1" is a salt run, and 3" is a plowable event. In terms of equipment hours required, that's a difference of several orders of magnitude. Even so, if they're correct and it's over by midnight Monday, then we have plenty of time to get things done before Tuesday morning.

The way it worked out, the worst part of it all happened Tuesday morning, when some of our accounts got 3" in a couple of hours. By that time everybody had been pretty much saying any additional accumulation would be an inch or so.

I know it was lake effect snow, and that that's really hard to pinpoint.

I also know that in other circumstances the temperature is the critical factor. If it's pretty clearly going into the 20's then whatever falls will be frozen. If the forecast is a few degrees off when it's right around the freezing point then who knows where and when the rain/snow line will be? I've just learned that any time there's both clouds and freezing temps, there could be snow, or conversly, unless it's clear or above freezing, a snowplower can't get a good night's sleep.

What does this all add up to? Just what BRL said in the other thread--the reality is you still just have to check outside and see what's actually happening.

( I have to add, I respect you, Tony, for participating here. I'm not sure anyone has ever said "Boy, they were right on the money with that forecast. I love those weather guys!" It's much more likely that we're looking to lynch a weatherman--*any* weatherman. Thanks for letting us know that you consider our opinions valuable. :) )

[digger242j]

As I thought a little further about it, a question for Tony came to mind.

Statistically speaking, for these big events, how often *do* long range (say 120 hours) models verify?

It just seems like, if they say that five days from now I'm going to get a foot of snow, that I never do, but somebody a few hundred miles from me might. On the ther hand, if they're saying that five days from now somebody within a few hundred miles of me might get a foot of snow, it seems like sometimes I get it instead.

Is there any wisdom in thinking that if the five day forecast model says that it's going to happen *right here*, then it's practically guarenteed not to?

[HWCWX]

That's a great question Digger, The correct answer would require a little research but the operational answer since I do forecasting every day for the past 20 years is the operational NWP models have some clue what's going to happen but often 120 hours out they are no where near right or the perfect prog which seems plausable since there only computer models.

The hype on this next system force my hand on issueing my clients a strongly worded storm potential statement since my phone started ringing off the hook yesterday. My problem with the long range doom and great huge snow storm or blizzard forecast from the local weather geeks and media I think causes many go into a panic mode and it's the cry wolf syndome then when the real storm threat comes along the clients and public thinks the weatherman is full of crap because there where many false alarms before the real storm moved over there region.

Anyway we continue to watch the Sunday - Monday time but right now I would not bet the range on a huge snow storm for the NYC - PHILLY and or DC area. Boston however is not my forecast are could be another story.