03-10 &11 2004 Nor Easter

[BRL]

Well with the demise of the Winter page at Millenium's site I figured I'd post some NWS weather geek speak to ease the withdrawal for some of us here ;) There will be a really potent Nor Easter firing up wed & thu, and there is potential for it to come close enough to the coast to give the coastal MA & NE some snow. THe last few days they were pretty sure it would just be an Atlantic Ocean storm that wouldn't affect us, but some of the models are casting a better track for us now, so we can cross the fingers & do the snow dances. I'll post some of the Mt Holly & NYC NWS Offices' discussions for those of us who like the nitty gritty details of why they can never tell us what the weather is going to do :rolleyes: Another torturous close call to watch. (Mount the plows, or not mount the plows... mount the plows, or not mount them... mount the...) lol

This best sums up the torturous nature of this close call IMO:
WHILE THIS MAY ONLY BE ABOUT A 50 MILE SHIFT...WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND THE POTENCY OF THIS SYSTEM...IT WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN THE OUTCOME. WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A SCENARIO WHERE 50 MILES IS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL THAT MEETS OR EXCEEDS WARNING CRITERIA...AND A COATING OF AN INCH OR LESS.

[BRL]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
300 AM EST TUE MAR 9 2004

WE DID NOT SEE ANY INIT PBLMS WITH THE 00Z FCST PKG AND ALL OF THE
MDLS ARE PRETTY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED FOR OUR CWA. ON WATER VAPOR IMAG
FCSTD VORT MAX AND DRY SLOT SEEMED TO BE HANDLED QUITE WELL BY THE
GFS. THE GFS HAS DRIFTED FTHR OFSHR WHL THE UKMET HAS COME INLAND.
AGAIN THE ECMWF HAS HAD AMAZING RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. THERE RMNS
MDL DIF WITH RESPECT TO QPF AND THE INFERRED PTYP WITH THE BNDRY LYR
AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE PRETTY WARM. UPSHOT FOR THE CSTL AREAS S/B ONE
OF THE STGST NORTHEASTERS OF THE SEASON AND THE PTNL FOR MINOR PSBLY
MDT CSTL FLOODING. THE PTYP PBLMS HOPEFULLY WILL COME INTO BETTER
RESOLUTION WITH SUCCESSIVE MDL RUNS AS WELL AS HOW FAR W TO BRING
THE POPS. KIND OF UNCOMFORTABLE FCSTG SO MUCH RAIN GIVEN FCSTD THICK
VALUES. THEN AGAIN IT RAINED YDA WITH 5250M 1000-500MB THICK AND
1295M 1000-850MB THICK. ANS WILL BOIL DOWN TO TIMING OF HVYST PCPN
WHICH FOR NOW APRS TO BE DURG WED AFTN AND EVE AND HOW HVY THE
INTENSITY BCMS...DYNAMIC COOLING WOULD EASILY CHG THE PCPN OVR TO
SNOW.

BETWEEN NOW AND WED CWA RMNS STUCK UNDER THE CLOSED LOW WITH WK SHRT
WVS ROTATING ARND IT. LLVL THICK VALUES ARE AT THEIR LOWEST THIS
MRNG B4 THEY START TO MODIFY. NEVERTHELESS...PCPN INTENSITY EXPECTED
TO BE SO LIGHT...WE WILL CONT THE MIXED PCPN WORDING NEAR AND IN THE
CSTL PLAIN. ASSUMING WE ARE CORRECT WITH THE CLDY SKY COVER GUID MAX
TEMPS LOOK TOO LOFTY FOR TDY AND WILL LWR THEM ABT A CAT. AGAIN IF
WE ARE CORRECT WITH THE SKY COVER TNGT...THEN GUID MINS LOOK
REASONABLE.

WHL THE SFC LOW TRACK IS VERY SIM FOR WED/WED NGT...THE MDL QPF
FIELDS RMN QUITE DIF. THE CAN SEF/CAN GEM AND ETA ARE NRLY TOTALLY
OFSHR WHILE THE GFS AND UKMET PUSH MSRBL PCPN INTO PA. WE BLV THE
ETA/S TIGHTER PCPN GRADIENT IS CORRECT...MAYBE NOT NECESSARILY ITS
PLACEMENT. ATTM WE WILL BE GOING WITH LKLY POPS WHERE THE GFS AND
ETA AGREE AND LWR POPS TO CHC FTHR W. EXCEPT FOR OUR SERN AND
DELMARVA ZONES WE WILL INTRO THE LKLY POPS DURG THE AFTN. FIRST
THOUGHTS WERE THAT THE MOS MAX TEMPS ARE TOO HIGH FOR WED. BUT ON
FURTHER REVIEW IT WILL DEPEND UPON HOW QUICKLY PCPN STARTS. BLV NGM
MOS BY ANY ACCOUNT IS TOO WARM...BUT WILL SHAVE LESS AND LESS OFF OF
GFS MOS IN OUR NRN ZNS WHERE THE PCPN WOULD ARRIVE LATEST. AGN PTYP
IS GOING TO BE A PBLM AS THE BNDRY LYR INIT BEGINS PRETTY WARM AND
THE MDLS ARE FCSTG THE STGST SUPPORT FOR HVYST PCPN TO BE OFSHR.
INTERESTING HOW BASED ON THICK VALUES ALONE BUFKIT GIVES MOSTLY
SNOW...BUT THE BOURGOUIN PTYP CHGS THIS TO MOSTLY RAIN AS FRZG LCLS
ARE FCSTD TO BE AND RMN (?) BTWN 1 AND 2K. ALTHO IT MAY SOUND
WISHY-WASHY THE TYPICAL SPRING STORM DOES GO FROM RAIN TO SNOW WHEN
INTENSITY INCRS AND MAY GO BACK TO RAIN AS IT DECRS. WHL IT IS
PLENTY COLD ALF...BNDRY LYR TEMPS ARE FCSTD TO RMN PRETTY HIGH THRUT
THE EVENT WHICH BY ITSELF WOULD PRECLUDE MNTNG ACCUMS ANYWHERE.
SINCE THIS IS STILL ABT 36-48HRS AWAY AND A 60 MILE JOG TO THE W
WOULD BE WI THE MDL NOISE...WE WILL MNTN THE PSBLTY OF SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW (COUPLE OF INCHES) IN OUR NJ ZONES ESP FOR WED NGT
WHEN THE INDIRECT SUN WON/T BE THERE TO HELP. OTRWISE...WE PREFER
THE DEEPER GFS SOLN GIVEN THE BACLIN INVOLVED.

[BRL]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY

1103 AM EST TUE MAR 9 2004

...
.....................PREVIOUS 415 AM DISCUSSION......................

MID-RANGE...THIS IS WHERE IT GETS INTERESTING. THE ETA...GFS AND CANADIAN GLOBAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE POSITION AND TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW THROUGH 12Z THU. HOWEVER THEY DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND THE AMOUNT OF UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. THE ETA SHEARS OUT AND ELONGATES ITS BULLSEYE OF MID-LEVEL OMEGA WHILE THE GFS BRINGS IT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WED NIGHT. THE ETA TRENDS JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE GFS IN MOST OF THE MASS FIELDS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS MAY BE DUE TO THE FACT THAT IT IS SLIGHTLY QUICKER THAN THE GFS IN BRINGING ACROSS AN
APPROACHING MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE THIS MAY ONLY BE ABOUT A 50 MILE SHIFT...WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND THE POTENCY OF THIS SYSTEM...IT WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN THE OUTCOME. WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A SCENARIO WHERE 50 MILES IS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL THAT MEETS OR EXCEEDS WARNING CRITERIA...AND A COATING OF AN INCH OR LESS.

FOR NOW...AFTER COLLABORATION WITH HPC AND
SURROUNDING WFO'S...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION. THIS WILL RESULT IN RAISING POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA WED NIGHT...AND WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK...BUT HOLD OFF ON A WATCH FOR NOW.

THE AFOREMENTIONED MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH LATE THU INTO FRI. HAVE LEFT A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN FRO THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE THAT SWINGS THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...BUT WILL LEAVE DRY FROM MID-MORNING FRIDAY
ON...AS MOISTURE IS LIMITED BY THE TIME THE SECOND SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FRIDAY AFTERNOON.