PDA

View Full Version : Here we go snow!!!! NorEaster


hoot
02-15-2004, 10:14 AM
Watch
The Weather Channel
for storm updates
Severe Weather Alert from the National Weather Service
...ATLANTIC NJ-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY NJ-BERKS PA-BUCKS PA-CAMDEN NJ- CAPE MAY NJ-CARBON PA-CAROLINE MD-CECIL MD-CHESTER PA- COASTAL ATLANTIC NJ-COASTAL OCEAN NJ-CUMBERLAND NJ-DELAWARE PA- DELAWARE BEACHES DE-EASTERN MONMOUTH NJ-GLOUCESTER NJ-HUNTERDON NJ- INLAND SUSSEX DE-KENT MD-KENT DE-LEHIGH PA-MERCER NJ-MIDDLESEX NJ- MONROE PA-MONTGOMERY PA-MORRIS NJ-NEW CASTLE DE-NORTHAMPTON PA- NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON NJ-OCEAN NJ-PHILADELPHIA PA-QUEEN ANNE'S MD- SALEM NJ-SOMERSET NJ-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON NJ-SUSSEX NJ-TALBOT MD- WARREN NJ-WESTERN MONMOUTH NJ- 410 AM EST SUN FEB 15 2004

... POTENTIAL NOR'EASTER LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... ... A RETURN TO COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE INTERIM...

COMPUTER GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN DELMARVA AS WELL AS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF NEW JERSEY BEGINNING AS EARLY AS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY. SEVERAL COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THAT LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST ON TUESDAY AND TRACK NORTHEAST TO A LOCATION OFF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION, MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW, IF NOT ALL, IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

WITH THE POSSIBLE NOR'EASTER STILL THREE DAYS AWAY, NOT ALL COMPUTER MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT PERTAINING TO THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AS WELL AS HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST, AWAY FROM THE COAST, THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL. AS OF EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, IT APPEARED THAT THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL WOULD FALL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE PHILADELPHIA METROPOLITAN AREA.

ANOTHER POSSIBLE CONCERN FOR THE WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME IS TIDAL FLOODING. AT THE MOMENT, IT DOESN'T APPEAR THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE EXTREMELY STRONG AS IT PASSES THE COASTLINES OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY. BUT, WITH THE NEW MOON OCCURRING ON FRIDAY, ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE RUNNING HIGH. THUS, DEPENDING UPON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM, SOME TIDAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION MAY OCCUR.

WITH A FAIR DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS SYSTEM, CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS IN THE EVENT THAT A SIGNIFICANT STORM DOES ULTIMATELY DEVELOP.

THE COLD AIR THAT THIS SYSTEM WOULD ACT UPON, UNLIKE THE SYSTEM ITSELF, IS A CERTAINTY. IN FACT, YOU'LL NOTICE THE CHANGE IN AIRMASS WHEN YOU STEP OUTSIDE TODAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 15 DEGREES COLDER THAN ON SATURDAY. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL FALL BELOW ZERO IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ELSEWHERE. BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO REINFORCE THE ARCTIC AIR TONIGHT AND AT THE SAME TIME PUSH WIND CHILL VALUES TO BELOW ZERO THROUGHOUT THE REGION. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT....

JCurtis
02-15-2004, 10:25 AM
OK, hoot take a DEEEEEEP Breath and relax!!!!!!!

Sit down and put your head between your knees and breathe slowly!

Its far too early to get so excited.

There is plenty of time for this to change into a decent storm OR NOTHING AT ALL.

Seen it happen a lot. so just relax and don't be surprised if nothing happens.:eek: :D

BRL
02-15-2004, 11:12 AM
Hoot, welcome to SC.com! You don't have your location filled out, where are you located?

I have to agree with Jeff on this one. This event has been a marginal chance since pulling into the medium range (it was pegged as a real good potential a week or 2 ago in the long range casts!). And now it seems like the models want to put it on the wrong track to be a good snow maker for the NE & much of the Mid Atlantic. But a few of the forecasters I read have been saying there are specific reasons some of the models can't really be trusted yet, but should be more accurate by tonight's runs. Hopefully by then they are pushing the track in a better direction again. I wouldn't really trust any forecasts on this one until the early Monday AM casts unfortunately, because of all of the variances.

Jay! Yo Jay! Wake up, time to do the correct dance this time!

Here is how Gary Gray summed it up in his post last night :(
( :) for those of you in the areas he mentions will get hit) He did pretty good with the last 2 systems from what I saw.

http://www.millenniumweather.com/winter/cast2.html

<< Though there certainly remains a CHANCE for a significant East Coast storm during the upcoming week, the recent model trends are leaning against it. This not only makes for a less threatening situation, but it also gives me almost nothing to discuss tonight! Not a single model shows a significant winter storm any more. Because almost all are "sort of close", we do need to keep monitoring this system, so I am (obviously!) posting tonight. But, this will be one of my shortest posts of the season, given that there is now NO guidance calling for a significant event. ...

...My thinking: Well, what can I say... The models are in excellent agreement, and they're not going for much of anything. The most impressive model, the ECMWF does show this to be a very close call, but that's all it is... a close call. This does give us reason to watch this system, ...

...That should allow for a narrow swath of significant snow (3-6") across southeastern VA and the southern Delmarva; immediate coastal areas may mix with or change to rain, holding accumulations low. And, really, that's about it for this evening. >>

roblandscape
02-15-2004, 02:46 PM
Hey thanx hoot, now I will go get everything ready since you said so!!!!!!!!!!

Pelican
02-15-2004, 03:26 PM
Bring it on!!!:zoom

snowplowjay
02-15-2004, 03:59 PM
Ive got my fingers crossed!!!!


I need a snow storm baaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaad

jt5019
02-15-2004, 04:25 PM
Sounds like its gonna be a close call...i could use some snow:)

BWhite
02-15-2004, 04:37 PM
I hope it makes its way, north , We are due !

cmerland
02-15-2004, 06:53 PM
Hoot,

I have a riddle for you

What do the following things all have in common???

Santa Claus
The Easter Bunny
The Tooth Fairy
A weather forecast longer then 12 hours from the storm???

Think about it and then post your answer here and Ill post back with the correct answer tommorrow.

BROKER
02-15-2004, 08:32 PM
10deg here,cold enough for snow.

jt5019
02-16-2004, 07:04 PM
There still may be some hope.!!! from nbc 30 news storm center
...stay tuned to updated forecasts on NBC 30...a major storm will be developing in the waters south of New England...right now, computer models are giving us some northern fringe effects on Tuesday night & Wednesday...of interest though, is the trend is for the storm coming a bit closer on each successive computer run...right now an area of heavy moisture is progged to be just off the Southern New England coast on Wednesday...it appears more likely now that we will have snow accumulation, especially in Southern & interior Southeastern Connecticut...

BWhite
02-17-2004, 12:45 PM
Looks like a Cape Cod snowstorm this time

jt5019
02-17-2004, 01:15 PM
I got some salt in today just incase... its a little close to risk it. Some weather stations already have my location in the 1 to 3 inch range.

nsmilligan
02-18-2004, 08:48 AM
We could get up to 20" with 60 MPH winds!:zoinks It could be a long couple of days coming up.

Bill

jt5019
02-18-2004, 09:11 AM
Lucky you ..we didnt even get flurries :mad:

JCurtis
02-18-2004, 09:50 AM
Hey Hoot , see what I mean...

here they were calling for 1"- 3" starting late last night and ending early this morning...

What did MY area get .... ZERO, NADA, NOTHING, ZIPPO !!!!

Not even a stray flake.

Unless you were in Eastern CT, Eastern Long island or southern Jersey you probably didnt get anything at all.:headwall :headwall

urethane dino
02-18-2004, 04:53 PM
Jeff FWIW
Even Eastern CT didnt get much, 1/2" in Norwich and about 1" in New London. Just a salt run in Norwich, and about 4 hrs of skid steer work in New London. At least it was something to do.
Dino

cat320
02-18-2004, 06:03 PM
1" was enough to get the bobcate out?

snowplowjay
02-18-2004, 08:52 PM
No snow here what a joke :(



Jay

Prosno
02-19-2004, 03:04 AM
I think its time to put on your pink tights Jay and do our little snow dance:grinz

urethane dino
02-19-2004, 04:38 AM
We could have pretreated with magic salt and melted all of it, but we get paid by the hr so to maximize our revenue, we let the 1" fall and then mov it all. The areas we take care of ar so tight and confined,using a truck isnt an option. We do the two parking lots, and 80% of the walks with the bobcat, and then handle the side walks with a blower or shovel. We salt it all by hand, dump a few bags in the bocat and then walk along and spread. BTW, we plow the two lots with jts the 68" bucket on the SS, so we can maximize hrs. If they go with a seasonal contract next year, we will fabricate a small pusher or SS.Possibly from al old 7.5' fisher plow I have.
Dino

nobull1
02-21-2004, 05:10 PM
Well Guy's first post at this site just been lurking for a few months.We got that Noreaster in the Halifax area 38 1/2 inches in 24 hours c/w 60 mile an hour winds.The whole province was in state of emergency for 2 days major roads in and out closed,snow plows called off the roads.Just crazy and calling for 4 to 8 tonight and they still have not cleared all roads.Been using my Kubota tractor with front end loader to move snow can't plow a lot of my customers have 3 to 4 feet level in their driveways.

76chevyman
02-21-2004, 05:43 PM
Hey why dont you share some of that snow with us. I would like at lease one more plow this year then us Ct boys can meet up at hooters again and hopefully a few good N.Y. Guys will attend too

Rich:burnout

nobull1
02-21-2004, 05:57 PM
Well until this snow it has been 6 outings for me a real lackluster year for sure.We broke the record set in 1944 that was 20 inches in 24 hours.You know all this snow at it still sucks there is so much snow it takes forever to do anything and you can't really get what it's worth.Just 3 to 4 every third day would be great.Just for example our farm,house and neighbors yard takes normally 1.5 hours, this storm 8 hours, plus I plowed 4 times during the storm just to stay ahead