Jan 26, 27, & 28 2004 Nor Easter

[BRL]

OK with part 1 out of the way we can move on to parts 2 & 3. My NWS is still calling for 2-4" tonight with change to sleet\freezing rain tomorrow for Part 2. Then they are thinking the 3rd low will really bomb out & run up the coast. Now if it can set up just off the coast, & quickly enough, my area can get in on the heavy snow accumulations before it starts its cruise up the coast. :shades Might have to hire Jay to do one of those dances for me LOL. Either way I still believe we'll end up with a plowable amount at the least. After it organizes & starts up the coast, the ingredients are around for it to become a classic Nor Easter, and the rest of the NE will get some decent snows I bet. Time will tell. NWS updates their discussions & forecasts around 11:30ish AM & maybe Gary will also post around mid day again. They will all hopefully have a better idea of what's to come by then, especially with this first part out of the way. :cash

Gary's map hasn't updated since yesterday (lots of new model info since then!), and Accuweather.com hasn't posted an updated accum map, but this site did, predicting til Wed 7:00 AM:
http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/appalsnow60.php

[Pelican]

The first system missed me entirely, sun is shining here now.

I'm on the bottom edge of the red on your map, trucks are fueled and ready. I just hope that tranny holds together!:beatsme

[jt5019]

We got nothing here so far.Local weather guessers are saying between 8 and 16 inches possibly more starting on tuesday afternoon.Its gonna be a looong couple of days :eek:

[myoder]

Our local weatherman are all over the board, one says 1-3, another 2-4, and 3-6, the NWS says 6-10.
So like you said only time will tell... Just hope we get plowable snow!!!:D

[snowplowjay]

Im hearing 8 to 16+ inches.


COME on MOMMA Nature storm us hunny. Dump all that white gold down upon us NE boys :)



Jay

[Adams Plowing]

theve been bouncing all over on there predictions for here but sofar nothing plowable...

[BRL]

Jay,
You'd better get those Hooter's girls outta your mind so you can concentrate on doing the correct snow dance, I don't want you messing this one up! :p

Well my NWS Office (Mt Holly) wimped out on making a call with the Tuesday night part with this update. They want to wait for the late afternoon model runs to try to guess where the snow vs freezing rain\sleet line will set up & how soon & where the changeovers to all snow will take place. They did say for my area that we might get 1-2" over night and 2-4" of snow sleet & freezing rain during the day tomorrow. And that there will be a changeover back to heavy snow Tuesday night, just not giving an accum guess yet. Otherwise they are pretty sure there is a Nor' Easter setting up.

NY NWS Office is saying their whole forecast area will get at least 6"-12" regardless of where the snow\sleet line sets up there (that covers NYC, Lower Hudson Valley, NE NJ, Bottom half of CT) during their 4:00 AM discussion. So further north from there it sounds like a given that a good snow is on the way.

"I'm on the bottom edge of the red on your map"
Pelican,
I'd say being in the 10"-15" yellow section of that map ain't such a bad thing! :shades Good luck with the equipment, and I say that to mine & everyone else's as well!!

Nap time!

[BWAMX]

I'm hearing 8-20" from various reports.

WE"LL SEE !!!:D

It will be a long couple of days.

Just posted on ACCUWEATHER

[paponte]

Well we had better get some significant snowfall, or I will be calling my gut a liar! I was thinking along the lines of 6" for this week, and the frist round missed us totally. I still have hope for rounds 2 and 3. BRING IT ON! plowing!

[jt5019]

ill be happy as long as its enough to plow.I have a feeling its gonna be that and a whole lot more :p

[BWhite]

Finally ! some decent snow has come back to Massachusetts

[BRL]

Well I'd say (& most forecasters are also) that Part 2 is really just going to be sucked up into, & basically be the begining of Part 3. Nothing really supposed to start happening til daylight or so (except maybe further south?). So looks like we get to get some real sleep & a meal before the battle ;) Just wish there was a shut off for that damned adrenaline gland, tried to take a nap today but never really fell out all the way :(

So our NWS put us under a Watch finally & a prediction of 6"-12" starting tomorrow afternoon as freezing rain\sleet possibly. We'll see what happens I guess. Gary made a post at 5:00 PM and said he updated his map. But the map looks exactly like the other one & says posted yesterday, so I think he forgot to actually post the new map again. :rolleyes: Oh well, we'll have to go with the 2 posted here in the thread already.

[BRL]

Actually Gary did post the map LOL. Thanks to bkrois for informing me that it was my browser not updating for some reason.

[Pelican]

Well that 8 - 12" looks a little more manageable!:nodd

[BRL]

So I looked at the 3 maps. 3 different forecasters have my area solidly in the 6-12 range, so I guess I can have a high confidence in that. :grinz plowing!

[W-n-K Landscaping]

Just about everyone is forecasting 6-12 for my area, so I guess that's a fairly safe number to go with- need to move some banks back soon though- running out of room! They are also calling locally for lake effect after this storm rolls through. No predictions yet on how much- so we will just have to wait and see.

Bill

[BRL]

"Well that 8 - 12" looks a little more manageable!"

Wimp!!

:p ;) :D

[Dan725]

Well for Morris County now that huge storm is starting to be down played. Everything that I have been seeing now is down to under a foot the forecasters are crazy went from over a foot to now under and the Weather channel is only calling for 3-7 total. I hate this part of it all the uncertainty. Oh well whatever it is something is better than nothing have to wait until it actually starts and then just see what happens.
Be safe everyone and get your rest hopefully it will be a long night.

[BRL]

HEY!!

Yo Jay!! I told you to stop thinking about those Hooter's girls & do the dance right. What are ya doing to me??!! You screwed up big time fella. You're now grounded. No Hooter's escapades for a Month & no frat parties for 2 weeks.

Unless of course you can change Friday's little Clipper into a real storm, then I'll consider a downgraded punishment.

Well like I had said in the first post of this thread, we needed this thing to get organized quick, and on the right track, or we'd miss out on the fun in this area. And I had also said the models were trending toward a slower & closer to the caost formation, and that seems to be the case now :( So we went from 6-12 last night to 5-8. That's not so bad actually, so I ain't gonna complain :grinz The other thing is right now a barely visible mist of ice has started & seems to be quickly glazing the road, so time to fire up the salters.

[JCurtis]

not even flurries in my neck of the woods yet :(

now they are saying 4-7 or 6-10 along the Connecticut coast.

its all a crapshoot !!!! depends on the individula weather guesser and the computer model he or she decides to go with.


They say its all gonna happen tonight after 5 pm and taper off tomorrow morning.

Maybe this is gonna be one of those storms that never materialize !!! How many times have we gotten all hyped up only to be disappointed when nothing happened.:headwall :headwall

We shall see tonight !:o

[jt5019]

Got the truck loaded all set to go and still nothing but a few flurries.Looking at the radar it doesnt even seem like the storm has formed yet.They still say its coming and tonight we will see snow at the rate of 1 to maybe 3 inches an hour so it would add up pretty quick.Most of the forecasters seem to have backed off a little on the totals but most still say a solid 6 to 12.

[Dan725]

Well jt5019 all ready to go here also and got a dusting of snow with a little ice today but still not snowing here they are talking around 5:00 or 6:00 with heavy snow around midnight. I would think you won't be seeing much unril around three. I live in the Northern part of the state.

All ready and can't wait:cash

[BRL]

So part of the big scale back in forecasts was that a whole section of data from the southeast (where half of this storm is developing from) was missing from the AM computer model runs. So now its anybody's guess LOL. The afternoon runs jumped back close to where they were yesterday as far as QPF. But like I said, its starting later than they thought, so we'll miss some of the fun here for sure. But they are saying it will be intense with a few hours of inch per hour snow. So a quick but heavy shot here.
Hopefully it actually materializes. There is finally a wall of radar coming through PA, and radar is quickly & seperately developing in South & Central Jersey moving NE, so that's promising. The NWS forecasts still says 1-3 by dusk, and I don't see much daylight showing through the cracks in the curtains lol. Then once it gets going my forecast says total of 5-8 by midnight then taper off. Better late then never?? We'll see tomorrow ;)

[jt5019]

The radar is looking much more impressive now.They say after midnight snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches an hour maybe more so its gonna come quick and by moring most of the heavy stuff should have passed.Atleast ill be able to squeeze in a few hours of sleep tonight before i head out :)

[Dan725]

Thanks for the updates BRL. it's almost time to get going I'm sure your already out. As you said we'll see in the morning. have a great night and be safe.

[jt5019]

Just stopped in from cleaning up some lots.so much for a foot its 1:30 am it looks like its about over already.About 4 inches in middletown so far. glad it was a major storm

[BWhite]

The 6-12 was changed to 4-7 by 7 am . 5 am there is nothing not a trace and it looks like zero wil be the total .

[JCurtis]

went out at 11:00 pm last night, pushed all my accounts. The snow was coming down fast at least 1" - 2" hr. It mounted up fast from when it started to accumulate around 9 pm last night.


Still snowing here ( light but steady) close to 10" must have fallen total so far, took a nap and got a cup of coffee and going back out. :burnout

Gonna hit the accounts once again. :cash and go check on some of my competitors, make notes of those accounts that aren't properly serviced.

[jt5019]

Im guessing a total of 7 or 8 inches around here.Not as big as expected but still enough to keep us busy :cash

[JCurtis]

Unofficial snowfall amounts from the NWS for Stamford, CT as of 9:00 am, 1/28/04

11"

Now that was a snowstorm :D

Longtime in coming, but serious once it got here.

[haryhood]

Well I got the plow all hooked up and getting excited cause this would be the 1st time I would get to use it. Since I bought it back in Early DEC. Stayed up till midnight to make sure nothing has changed and they predicted 12-16 inches. I got up at 5am to call in sick to work and looked out the window and saw NUTTIN not even a flake. ohh was I not smiling :( , guess I have to go to work and wait for the next storm (if there will eva be one) . Thanks PPL I need to vent , I feel better now.